2009 Fantasy Forecast – The Oscars Edition Part I
As we approach a new year is fantasy sports, though we are mid-season in Basketball and Hockey; I can’t help but look towards next season. Also as one who is intrigued by fantasy sports; I’m also intrigued by the Oscar’s where the best movies and actor’s and movies really win; but rather who gives the most free gifts and bribes prevails. So I though I would go through the Oscar contenders and pretenders and loosely tie them into fantasy sports. This should be fun.
Doubt – In the movie ‘Doubt’ Meryl Streep’s nun character senses something’s just not right in the churches rectory when Philip Seymour Hoffman is around little boys. Shame, shame, shame Mr. Capote and shame, shame, shame on fantasy hockey owners for wanting too much for fantasy quick starts Phil Kessel and Jeff Carter. Kessel had a nice run but with just 2 points in his last 5 and only 8 points in his first 15 games this season; you should know that dry spells will come and will be long. You could still swap this guy for a top 2nd half Goalie like Kiprusoff or Turco or you could spin him for a top forward like Joe Thornton or Mike Richards. Hold onto him too long and you’ll be settling for a Patrick Sharp or Alexander Frolov. If you’re in a keeper league; he may be an interesting keeper but there are several more youngster’s with more upside in my opinion; I highly ‘Doubt’ that Kessel will be a consistent 80 point player, especially with less than stellar stick skills. Jeff Carter’s in the same boat but may be tougher to sell low, since he leads the league in Goals scored. The problem here is, when Briere comes back and when the Flyers take the imminent stumble that we all know they will take, Coach John Stevens will start to re-tool the lines like we know he likes to. I can’t imagine Carter will lead the 1st line all season, eventually Mike Richards will get the bump and Carter will be stuck with Giroux and Gratton. Mike Richards has already out played Carter as of late and will start to steal more of Carter’s power play minutes. Carter is a 60-70 point a season fantasy player, especially on a deep team like the Flyers; I’d move him now and see if you can luck into a Patrick Kane or Pavel Datsyuk. If not I’d settle for a #2 Goalie, if you need one. There is one more unexpected start and that’s Rookie Goaltender Steve Mason. Goaltender’s never get the credit they deserve in fantasy because their categories are usually weighted less than your forwards and defensemen. This is always a mistake, at least in roto; as you can’t actually win a league by punting wins and percentages. Do I think Steve Mason will keep a 30 win, 1.70 GAA pace. I doubt that, but the Blue Jacket’s do have a very underrated blue line with Russell, Commodore, Hejda, Klesla, and Tyutin; so I think 25 wins and a 2.20 GAA is possible with a few more shutouts. Given that he’s on Columbus, makes me think that his trade value as actually much more limited than it should be and unless you are offered a top 10 RW or LW or a defenseman like Chara, Souray, or Boyle; I’d stay put. In closing I like Hoffman for best supporting Actor Oscar but not Streep for Best Actress (she’ll be a nominee though) and it’s my guess that Slum Dog Millionaire and the Dark Knight will leap frog it for a best picture nomination.