Today’s post is Part II of a five part 2009 Fantasy Forecast. Be sure to check out Part I if you missed it. Now, continuing on with the Oscar theme…

Milk – Sean Penn plays late American politician, Harvey Milk, the first openly gay man to be elected to public office in California. In my opinion, his performance on screen was terrible; the only people acting in this movie are the stand ins. This allows me though to talk about the biggest fantasy news in the Bay area, where ‘Milk’ takes place. Is it about how Don Nelson angers me when he shuffles his lineup every week; no it’s nothing new. Is it about my man crush on the underrated 49ers QB Shaun Hill; no he had several man crushes this last year. No this news is depressingly bad news. It’s Matt Holliday being traded to the A’s. Now, if you owned him in a fantasy keeper or dynasty you knew the possibility of him being traded was pretty good; but you held out hope that if he was traded he would get dealt to a contender or a team with a solid hitting lineup, or even a team with a hitter’s ballpark. But alas, none of this happened. Let me warn you non keeper/dynasty leaguers. You may look at Holliday’s numbers in Colorado and want to draft Holliday in the first round. Please don’t. This isn’t only because of Matt’s sad road numbers when he was a Rockie, because lots of players struggle a bit on the road (unless you’re Adrian Gonzalez). This is also because Holliday moves from a lineup filled with great hitters like Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe to a lineup of lousy hitters like Daric Barton and Jack Cust. It doesn’t really matter where Holliday hits in Oakland, his RBI opportunities will be few, he’ll get walked a lot, and he’ll find it tough getting home. Billy Beane wrote a book called ‘Money Ball,’ I’ve never read it but I think its about bringing together a bunch of small ball players and then not playing small ball. With the A’s ranking nearly dead last in SB’s over the past couple of season’s, makes me think that Holiday’s speed upside may go away as well. I think Holliday could end up with the following line: 90 Runs, 20 Hrs, 85 RBI, 8 SB’s, .300 BA. It’s not a bad line and if you’re in a league with OBP, OPS, or Walks; he will add more value. Still this makes him about the 14-16th best OF and no longer the top OF in fantasy. It’s sad, like on Oscar night when Milk gets nominated for a slew of Oscars but pulls a Shawshank Redemption and goes home a complete loser.