Everyone loves Fantasy Sports! Welcome to Part IV of my five-part 2009 Fantasy Forecast Oscars Edition. Before reading today’s post, be sure to check out Part I (Doubt), Part II (Milk) and Part II (The Wrestler).

Slumdog Millionaire – I don’t even know what this movie is about, nor do I know fantasy owners keep drafting Derek Jeter so high. In 2007 he was the #8 fantasy SS, so naturally he would have an ADP (Average Draft Position) of close to 30 last year. Are people insane!! I know he plays for the Yankees but so do fellow fantasy underachievers Bobby Abreu, Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and well just about every Yankee but ARod (and even he’s an underachiever in the clutch). Last year he was the #12 fantasy SS, so naturally he may fall to maybe round 4. I’d stay away; you could to a draft a more productive or equally productive SS in the mid and late rounds. SS’s I’d draft over Jeter: Hanley, Rollins, Reyes, Theriot, Michael Young, Alexei Ramirez, Mike Aviles, Carlos Guillen, JJ hardy, and Stephen Drew. SS’s that will have better PDV (Perceived Draft Value) than Jeter: The above mentioned players (especially Aviles and Ramirez), Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Renteria, Jerry Hairston Jr., Ramon Vazquez, Alexei Casilla, Johnny Peralta, and maybe Alcides Escobar (if he makes the team out of camp). Perceived draft value is a very important concept in fantasy. It says that even though these players may not put up better numbers than Jeter, you would rather draft them as a replacement to Jeter since you could get them several rounds later. Jeter only had 11 Hrs and 11 SB’s last year; his impressive categories were runs where he had 89 and a .300 BA which will help a little. Take a guy like Ryan Theriot last year who went about 14 rounds later and ended with 85 runs and a .307 average or JJ Hardy who was drafted late and who had 78 runs and a .287 BA but 24 Hrs. Owners would have been better off had they drafted Carlos Zambrano or CC Sabathia with that 3rd round pick and then snagged up Theriot or Hardy later in the draft. The key to fantasy baseball is not to be overly impressed with the players from good teams. The top 5 fantasy players were on teams that missed the post-season and 9 of the top 10 as well. As far as Slumdog Millionaire, who knows; maybe I’ll rent it when it comes out.