14 January 2009
Posted by Addie
We’ve finally reached the last article in my five part series on the 2009 Fantasy Forecast – The Oscars Edition. No surpprise here, saving the best for last. Be sure you read Part I (Doubt), Part II (Milk), Part II (The Wrestler) and Part IV (Slumdog Millionaire).
The Dark Night – My favorite movie of last year, and it is over 50 top critics #1 movie of the year; but still got snubbed at the Globes and could as well at the Oscars, because I’ve been told it made just too much money. Well I won’t snub any of my Oscar sports picks. 2008 NBA Fantasy Best Actor in a leading Role: Chris Paul. For some reason the NBA awarded the MVP last year to Kobe Bryant. I don’t know personally who votes for the NBA MVP but I know they are all morons. Kobe had more points than Paul and a couple of rebounds but that’s it. Paul shot better, had a ton more assists, steals, and just about everything but I guess that doesn’t matter to the rest of the non-fantasy world. Check out this line from November 22nd this year: 29 points, 16 assists, 10 Rebounds, 3 steals, 1 block, 1 3 pointer, and 11/17 shooting, plus just a single turnover. Tears literally rolled from my eyes when I saw that line. It made me almost actually want to watch an NBA game. My supporting actor goes to Marcus Camby, check out this line from December 19th: 19 points, 27 Rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 steals, and 9/16 shooting. Tears rolled from my eyes, literally tears. 2008 NHL Best actor: of course Alexander Ovechkin. 65 Goals (OMG!!), 47 assists, a +28, 446 SOG (that’s over 5 a game!!), and 11 GWG’s. I’ve seen entire fantasy squads do less than Ovechkin alone. Best supporting actor in the NHL goes to everyone else since everyone else seemed like a supporting actor; but since someone has to win I’ll give it to his top defenseman fellow Washington Capitol Mike Green. NFL best fantasy actor goes easily to Drew Brees. 34 TD’s and 5000+ passing yards made him the #1 fantasy QB and by far the #1 fantasy player. Best supporting actor, also a QB; Tyler Thigpen. I mean, who saw that one coming; he was this year’s Derek Anderson. Matt Cassel was a close second but he had more to work with. Lastly is MLB Best actor which for the second straight year Florida Marlin’s Hanley Ramirez. Anyone who hits 0ver .300 with 30+ HRs and 30 + SB’s, wins easily. Best Supporting actor is Mike Aviles who was a complete stud and no one has a clue who he is (and every year one person wins at the Oscars who no one knows).
Well that’s it with my Oscar edition. Hope the Dark Knight gets the recognition it deserves and Derek Jeter drops in drafts were he belongs. Here’s dreaming.
12 January 2009
Posted by Addie
Everyone loves Fantasy Sports! Welcome to Part IV of my five-part 2009 Fantasy Forecast Oscars Edition. Before reading today’s post, be sure to check out Part I (Doubt), Part II (Milk) and Part II (The Wrestler).
Slumdog Millionaire – I don’t even know what this movie is about, nor do I know fantasy owners keep drafting Derek Jeter so high. In 2007 he was the #8 fantasy SS, so naturally he would have an ADP (Average Draft Position) of close to 30 last year. Are people insane!! I know he plays for the Yankees but so do fellow fantasy underachievers Bobby Abreu, Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and well just about every Yankee but ARod (and even he’s an underachiever in the clutch). Last year he was the #12 fantasy SS, so naturally he may fall to maybe round 4. I’d stay away; you could to a draft a more productive or equally productive SS in the mid and late rounds. SS’s I’d draft over Jeter: Hanley, Rollins, Reyes, Theriot, Michael Young, Alexei Ramirez, Mike Aviles, Carlos Guillen, JJ hardy, and Stephen Drew. SS’s that will have better PDV (Perceived Draft Value) than Jeter: The above mentioned players (especially Aviles and Ramirez), Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Renteria, Jerry Hairston Jr., Ramon Vazquez, Alexei Casilla, Johnny Peralta, and maybe Alcides Escobar (if he makes the team out of camp). Perceived draft value is a very important concept in fantasy. It says that even though these players may not put up better numbers than Jeter, you would rather draft them as a replacement to Jeter since you could get them several rounds later. Jeter only had 11 Hrs and 11 SB’s last year; his impressive categories were runs where he had 89 and a .300 BA which will help a little. Take a guy like Ryan Theriot last year who went about 14 rounds later and ended with 85 runs and a .307 average or JJ Hardy who was drafted late and who had 78 runs and a .287 BA but 24 Hrs. Owners would have been better off had they drafted Carlos Zambrano or CC Sabathia with that 3rd round pick and then snagged up Theriot or Hardy later in the draft. The key to fantasy baseball is not to be overly impressed with the players from good teams. The top 5 fantasy players were on teams that missed the post-season and 9 of the top 10 as well. As far as Slumdog Millionaire, who knows; maybe I’ll rent it when it comes out.
9 January 2009
Posted by Addie
Welcome to Part III of my five-part 2009 Fantasy Forecast Oscars Edition. Before reading today’s post, be sure to check out Part I (Doubt) and Part II (Milk).
The Wrestler – This movie is the closest thing to a sports movie the Oscars bring us this year so I had to at least plug it. Darren Aronofsky’s ‘The Wrestler’ stars Mickey Rourke as a washed-up professional wrestler from the 80′s who 20 years later is offered one more big matchup against his former rival. His doctor in the movie, and I’m not making this up; says that if he fake wrestles one more time he could die. Helping him with this decision is Marisa Tomie who plays a washed up stripper with a heart of gold. Aronofsky probably did a casting call at the Hollywood unemployment office where he was after blowing 50 million dollars on 2005′s box office bomb ‘The Fountain.’ This leads me to a list of washed up fantasy players to be weary of in 2009. As fantasy baseball owners will probably admit to in 2008; if they held onto Ken Griffey Jr., Gary Sheffield, or Todd Helton all last season; they probably also held onto last place. As well as fantasy owners this year holding onto Allen Iverson. Now I don’t mean you should drop him; I just mean don’t draft him next year and trade him this year if you can. He no longer contributes much as a PG, he doesn’t shoot 3′s anymore, his FG% and TO’s are still a problem; he’s no longer a 20.0 PPG player and really only helps you in one category and that is Steals, if you drafted him to be your PG. His value did take a hit with the trade to Detroit but he was underperforming in Denver as well. If you had burnt a second round or third round pick on Iverson this year, then you were counting on more than 18 PPG and 5 Assists; but expect those numbers to drop off as well next year. Go ahead and say RIP to these other fantasy basketball dinosaurs: Lamar Odom, Shaquille O’Neal (he was actually dead 2 years ago), Jason Kapano (not sure if he was ever good), Tony Battie (for the 1% that still own him), Wally Szczerbiak (I still remember the 99 NCAA Tourney when he was at Miami, Ohio like it was yesterday), Bobby Jackson, Tim Thomas, and Antonio McDyess (good riddance). Fantasy Football actually has an age deadline; it’s called 30 years old if you’re a RB. Yes, that means you LT. Its not set in stone, Tiki Barber proved that 2 years ago but in most cases, for instance Corey Dillon, Mike Alstott, and Shaun Alexander; 30 is the drop off. This means LT drops to a second rounder for me, I’d say 18th or so. Sproles will likely steal more carries from him next year and injury problems will linger more. Jamal Lewis turns 30 as well next season; I don’t even see him as a 3rd tier RB anymore and falls to the mid rounds were Fred Taylor went this year. As far as Fred Taylor goes; you’d be better off he retires and a better 2nd RB takes over in Jacksonville. Westbrook also turns 30 but not until mid-season. Even with all the injuries I’d be hard pressed to let him fall out of the first round because he’s such a double threat. Edgerrin James turned 30 this year and wasn’t even a top 100 RB. I can’t see even drafting him next year. Edge will probably end up with a new team even if he continues to step it up in the playoffs but might end up retiring rather than playing in a secondary role for under 1 million a year. Deuce and Larry Johnson are both 30 as well. Deuce will likely be released by the Saints with the emergence of Pierre Thomas and won’t land anywhere in a starting gig. I see something similar to Shaun Alexander happening to Larry Johnson who wants out of Kansas City but brings with him a poor locker room reputation, injuries, and off the field problems. LJ is smoking some of Ricky Williams’ secret stash if he sees himself getting a multi year deal. If LJ ends up anywhere next season he likely won’t be the starter and may enter the season as a FA. Last but not least is Ricky Williams who is 32, though his lungs are 90. Ricky might have a little left in the tank since he was just getting high half his career but I doubt he does any better than this last season and he was of very little use unless you had a league with 4 starting RB’s or 3 flex positions. Getting back to the movie though, Tomie and Aronofsky may get nods but only Rourke is predicted to win Oscar gold; which would be useful to him since it would give him something to pawn in a couple of years.
7 January 2009
Posted by Addie
Today’s post is Part II of a five part 2009 Fantasy Forecast. Be sure to check out Part I if you missed it. Now, continuing on with the Oscar theme…
Milk – Sean Penn plays late American politician, Harvey Milk, the first openly gay man to be elected to public office in California. In my opinion, his performance on screen was terrible; the only people acting in this movie are the stand ins. This allows me though to talk about the biggest fantasy news in the Bay area, where ‘Milk’ takes place. Is it about how Don Nelson angers me when he shuffles his lineup every week; no it’s nothing new. Is it about my man crush on the underrated 49ers QB Shaun Hill; no he had several man crushes this last year. No this news is depressingly bad news. It’s Matt Holliday being traded to the A’s. Now, if you owned him in a fantasy keeper or dynasty you knew the possibility of him being traded was pretty good; but you held out hope that if he was traded he would get dealt to a contender or a team with a solid hitting lineup, or even a team with a hitter’s ballpark. But alas, none of this happened. Let me warn you non keeper/dynasty leaguers. You may look at Holliday’s numbers in Colorado and want to draft Holliday in the first round. Please don’t. This isn’t only because of Matt’s sad road numbers when he was a Rockie, because lots of players struggle a bit on the road (unless you’re Adrian Gonzalez). This is also because Holliday moves from a lineup filled with great hitters like Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe to a lineup of lousy hitters like Daric Barton and Jack Cust. It doesn’t really matter where Holliday hits in Oakland, his RBI opportunities will be few, he’ll get walked a lot, and he’ll find it tough getting home. Billy Beane wrote a book called ‘Money Ball,’ I’ve never read it but I think its about bringing together a bunch of small ball players and then not playing small ball. With the A’s ranking nearly dead last in SB’s over the past couple of season’s, makes me think that Holiday’s speed upside may go away as well. I think Holliday could end up with the following line: 90 Runs, 20 Hrs, 85 RBI, 8 SB’s, .300 BA. It’s not a bad line and if you’re in a league with OBP, OPS, or Walks; he will add more value. Still this makes him about the 14-16th best OF and no longer the top OF in fantasy. It’s sad, like on Oscar night when Milk gets nominated for a slew of Oscars but pulls a Shawshank Redemption and goes home a complete loser.
5 January 2009
Posted by Addie
As we approach a new year is fantasy sports, though we are mid-season in Basketball and Hockey; I can’t help but look towards next season. Also as one who is intrigued by fantasy sports; I’m also intrigued by the Oscar’s where the best movies and actor’s and movies really win; but rather who gives the most free gifts and bribes prevails. So I though I would go through the Oscar contenders and pretenders and loosely tie them into fantasy sports. This should be fun.
Doubt – In the movie ‘Doubt’ Meryl Streep’s nun character senses something’s just not right in the churches rectory when Philip Seymour Hoffman is around little boys. Shame, shame, shame Mr. Capote and shame, shame, shame on fantasy hockey owners for wanting too much for fantasy quick starts Phil Kessel and Jeff Carter. Kessel had a nice run but with just 2 points in his last 5 and only 8 points in his first 15 games this season; you should know that dry spells will come and will be long. You could still swap this guy for a top 2nd half Goalie like Kiprusoff or Turco or you could spin him for a top forward like Joe Thornton or Mike Richards. Hold onto him too long and you’ll be settling for a Patrick Sharp or Alexander Frolov. If you’re in a keeper league; he may be an interesting keeper but there are several more youngster’s with more upside in my opinion; I highly ‘Doubt’ that Kessel will be a consistent 80 point player, especially with less than stellar stick skills. Jeff Carter’s in the same boat but may be tougher to sell low, since he leads the league in Goals scored. The problem here is, when Briere comes back and when the Flyers take the imminent stumble that we all know they will take, Coach John Stevens will start to re-tool the lines like we know he likes to. I can’t imagine Carter will lead the 1st line all season, eventually Mike Richards will get the bump and Carter will be stuck with Giroux and Gratton. Mike Richards has already out played Carter as of late and will start to steal more of Carter’s power play minutes. Carter is a 60-70 point a season fantasy player, especially on a deep team like the Flyers; I’d move him now and see if you can luck into a Patrick Kane or Pavel Datsyuk. If not I’d settle for a #2 Goalie, if you need one. There is one more unexpected start and that’s Rookie Goaltender Steve Mason. Goaltender’s never get the credit they deserve in fantasy because their categories are usually weighted less than your forwards and defensemen. This is always a mistake, at least in roto; as you can’t actually win a league by punting wins and percentages. Do I think Steve Mason will keep a 30 win, 1.70 GAA pace. I doubt that, but the Blue Jacket’s do have a very underrated blue line with Russell, Commodore, Hejda, Klesla, and Tyutin; so I think 25 wins and a 2.20 GAA is possible with a few more shutouts. Given that he’s on Columbus, makes me think that his trade value as actually much more limited than it should be and unless you are offered a top 10 RW or LW or a defenseman like Chara, Souray, or Boyle; I’d stay put. In closing I like Hoffman for best supporting Actor Oscar but not Streep for Best Actress (she’ll be a nominee though) and it’s my guess that Slum Dog Millionaire and the Dark Knight will leap frog it for a best picture nomination.