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I am picking the Colts to win Super Bowl XLIV by a final score of 31-24. Usually we don’t see high scoring Super Bowl games, but I think this year will be different. I see both teams attacking early on and throwing downfield. Don’t be surprised if we see a 14-10 score at the end of the first quarter.

I like the Colts not just because they have the better quarterback but because they have experience. The Colts just won the Super Bowl a few years ago, I think in 2005. The New Orleans Saints on the other hand have never been to the Super Bowl. It will be new to them and I’m not confident in their ability to handle the big stage.

The x-factor is Dwight Freeney. He’s the best pass rusher in the game and without him the Colts will have a hard time getting to Drew Brees. The Saints will be able to double team Mathis and protect Brees for a long time – and trust, me you don’t want to give him a lot of time in the pocket. Brees is one of the best in the business at picking defenses apart. If Freeney plays (which I think he will) that will be a huge lift for the Colts defense.

I think we’ll see a tie game 24-24 going into the last few minutes of the 4th quarter, but Peyton Manning will do what he always does – execute a game-winning drive to perfection. I can see the Colts marching down the field, just eating up clock and scoring the final touchdown with about 2 minutes left. The Saints will get the ball, but won’t be able to punch it in for a touchdown at the end.

How do you see the Super Bowl playing out? Post a comment and let me know.

And don’t forget, Football Fanatics will have Super Bowl XLIV Champs apparel for sale immediately following the game.

Which game from yesterday did you enjoy the most? The AFC game started out great – we saw the Jets get out to an early lead, I’m sure it scared some Colts fans. But Peyton Manning did what he always does – come back and win games. The Colts narrowed the gap heading into halftime and then shut the Jets offense down completely in the second half, giving them a 30-17 victory.

The NFC was a nail biter down to the end. Brett Favre and the Vikings were marching down the field late in the fourth quarter to try and go up by a score, but Favre had his second interception of the day. Regulation ended with a 28-28 tie and we went into overtime. The Saints won the toss and received the ball first. It only took them a few minutes to get into field goal range and seal the victory. New Orleans is now headed to the Super Bowl for the first time in their history.

Here is a small sample of what we have for each team.

Indianapolis Colts

New Orleans Saints

In the case of the Saints, I would say no – at least not until they lock up homefield advantage. Even then, the Saints do not have a lot of playoff experience so they need to keep fresh and play with that sense of urgency. If the starters only play a half or 3 quarters then they could get relaxed and lose that edge they’ve been playing with all year.

The Colts are a different story though. They have a history of being in this position and in the playoffs. In years past, the Colts have mostly rested their starters once they’ve clinched homefield advantage. Though in most years, it doesn’t seem to work – they’ve only made it to the Super Bowl once since Peyton Manning arrived.

The one year the Colts won the Super Bowl they were 12-4 in the regular season. A great overall record, but it doesn’t feel as good when you see they lost 3 of their last 5 games and were not playing their best football at the end of the year. There was no resting players this year. The Colts were home in their first game but had to travel to Baltimore in the 2nd round of the playoffs. The Colts had to fight for everything – they could never ease up.

Do you think it’s beneficial for teams that have already clinched to rest their starters? Should guys like Manning and Brees only play 1/2 of a game from here on out? On one hand, they might get cold and relaxed, but on the other hand, you risk injury keeping them in there for a game that doesn’t matter.

I’ve heard rumors that the city of New Orleans shut down at 3:00 this afternoon in anticipation of tonight’s game. I’m sure Saints fans are partying like it’s Super Bowl week on Bourbon Street.

This is a very hard game to predict. How can you ever pick against Tom Brady and Randy Moss? The New Orleans Saints have a very good defense – one that scores a lot of touchdowns, but can they shut down the Patriots passing game? On the other hand, can the Patriots defense shut down Drew Brees and the Saints? I’m not sure they can. This is the formula for a shootout.

Both teams are loaded with so much offensive talent that it makes my head hurt just crunching their yearly stats. If I had to pick a winner here, I’d go with the Patriots. They seem to be the hot pick right now, despite by 1 point underdogs in most sports books. I just don’t think the Saints will go 16-0, so they’ve got to lose to someone.

Statistically speaking, the New Orleans Saints appear to have the better offense while the Colts appear to have the better defense. The Saints rank 1st in points per game (36.9) and yards per game (420.5), but the Colts rank 1st in points allowed per game (15.7). It feels weird saying the Colts have the best defense in the NFL when defense has always been their downfall in previous years.

If these two teams played each other on a neutral field it’s hard to pick who would win. I like Peyton Manning more than Drew Brees, so I’d probably give the Colts the edge. I do think the Saints have the better rushing attack and probably a more explosive defense, but over the last decade it’s just been too hard to go against the Colts. No matter what, Peyton Manning always finds a way to win games.

On a side note – I just looked at the Colts remaining schedule and I don’t see a a real tough game left.

@ Houston
vs. Tennessee
vs. Denver
@ Jacksonville
vs. New York Jets
@ Buffalo

Sure the Texans and Jaguars will play the Colts tough, and if Indy has a first round bye plus home field advantage wrapped up then they might start resting players … but really, they have a legit shot at going 16-0.